Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Rockies vs Mets – 7/14/24

Colorado Rockies

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and Colorado Rockies face off on July 14, 2024, at Citi Field for the third game of their series. The Mets, coming off a 7-3 victory against the Rockies on July 13, are having an above-average season with a 49-45 record. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling with a 33-63 record. New York enters the game as a big betting favorite with a current moneyline of -200 and an implied win probability of 64%.

Jose Quintana is set to start for the Mets. Despite his #158 ranking among starting pitchers, Quintana has a respectable 3.91 ERA this season. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he might have been lucky and could regress. Quintana averages 5.6 innings per start and projects to allow 2.3 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.5 walks today. His last start was stellar, going 7 innings with no earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 1 hit, and 1 walk.

German Marquez will take the mound for the Rockies. Marquez has been below-average this season, projecting to allow 2.8 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.4 walks over 5.5 innings. His last outing was short, pitching just 4 innings and giving up 3 earned runs.

Offensively, the Mets are ranked 8th in the league, with notable power, ranking 4th in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been the standout hitter, contributing significantly with 17 home runs and 51 RBIs. Over the last week, Jose Iglesias has been hot, hitting .400 with 2 home runs and a 1.304 OPS.

The Rockies’ offense is middling, ranked 17th, and lacks power, ranking 20th in home runs. Brenton Doyle has been their best hitter this season, with a .277 batting average and 14 home runs. Sam Hilliard has been the bright spot over the last week, hitting .385 with 2 home runs and a 1.352 OPS.

The Mets’ bullpen ranks 16th, while the Rockies’ bullpen is a weak point, ranked 26th. Given the Mets’ strong offense, better bullpen, and favorable projections from THE BAT X, they are well-positioned to take this game. With an implied team total of 4.93 runs, expect the Mets to continue their winning ways against the struggling Rockies.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, German Marquez should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Brenton Doyle is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Among all starting pitchers, Jose Quintana’s fastball velocity of 90 mph grades out in the 5th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Pete Alonso’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 79.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 65 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.80 Units / 63% ROI)