Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Rangers vs Astros – 7/13/24

Texas Rangers

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers face off again on July 13, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. This American League West matchup sees the Astros, who are having an above-average season with a 50-44 record, take on the Rangers, who are struggling with a 44-50 record. Yesterday, the Astros secured a 6-3 victory over the Rangers, continuing their momentum in the series.

Houston’s offense has been a key factor in their success, ranking 6th in MLB overall, 1st in team batting average, and 8th in home runs. Yordan Alvarez has been a standout performer, boasting a .300 batting average and a .926 OPS. Over the last week, Joey Loperfido has also been hot, hitting .400 with a 1.417 OPS in four games. On the pitching side, Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound for the Astros. Despite his 5.96 ERA, his 4.42 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky this season and could improve. Arrighetti’s last start saw him go five innings, allowing two earned runs with six strikeouts.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back. Their offense ranks 17th overall, with Marcus Semien leading the charge. Corey Seager has been their best hitter over the last week, hitting .360 with three home runs and a 1.207 OPS. Nathan Eovaldi, who has been solid this season with a 3.10 ERA, will start for Texas. However, his peripheral stats like a 3.68 SIERA indicate he might regress. In his last outing, Eovaldi pitched seven innings, giving up two earned runs with five strikeouts.

The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 6th, is significantly stronger than the Rangers’ 20th-ranked bullpen, which could be a deciding factor in a close game. Betting markets currently have the Rangers as slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a 50-50 game, suggesting value on the Astros at +100.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Nathan Eovaldi has a reverse platoon split and is stuck squaring off against 6 same-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Adolis Garcia has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Texas Rangers with a 20.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (+100)
  Out of every team today, the best infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Yordan Alvarez ranks in the 96th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .375.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 44 games (+15.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)