Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Guardians vs Tigers – 10/09/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians face off at Comerica Park on October 9, 2024, both teams find themselves battling in the American League Division Series. The Tigers, fresh off a 3-0 shutout victory against the Guardians on October 7, hope to carry that momentum into this crucial Game 3. The series is tied, making every game critical as the teams vie for a spot in the next round.

On the mound for Detroit is Keider Montero, who has struggled this season with a below-average 4.76 ERA, placing him 298th in the Power Rankings. Despite his challenges, the Tigers bullpen, ranked 7th best, provides a strong safety net if Montero falters early. Montero’s last outing was a short one, allowing only one earned run over three innings, which might inspire some confidence against Cleveland’s average-ranked offense that excels in home runs (12th) and stolen bases (6th).

Cleveland counters with Alex Cobb, a right-hander ranked 68th in the Power Rankings, boasting an excellent 2.76 ERA. Though Cobb has been lucky with a 3.70 xFIP suggesting possible regression, he faces a Tigers offense ranked 25th in MLB, which might work in his favor. Cobb’s low strikeout rate might still exploit Detroit’s tendency to strike out frequently (4th most in MLB).

Both teams have equally low implied team totals of 3.50 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cobb should have a slight advantage due to the Tigers’ offensive struggles. Nevertheless, Detroit’s recent victory and home field could tip the balance in this evenly matched contest.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-115)
  Out of all the teams today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Kyle Manzardo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Cleveland Guardians (18.3 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy set of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Keider Montero to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 74 games (+18.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+16.45 Units / 45% ROI)
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)