Check Out Orioles vs Athletics Picks and Betting Tips – July 06, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics and Baltimore Orioles meet again at Oakland Coliseum on July 6, 2024, for the second game of their series. The Athletics, languishing with a 33-57 record, are struggling through a tough season. Conversely, the Orioles are enjoying a stellar campaign, boasting a 56-32 record. Yesterday, the Orioles eked out a narrow 3-2 victory over the Athletics, underscoring the difference in their current fortunes.

Luis Medina will take the mound for the Athletics, bringing a 1-3 record and a 4.80 ERA. Medina has had a rough year, ranking as the #263 starter in MLB, and his 5.37 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate to keep his ERA below 5.00. Despite a solid outing on June 30, when he pitched six innings with just one earned run, Medina’s overall performance has been subpar. His high-flyball tendency (38% FB%) might spell trouble against the Orioles’ power-packed lineup, which leads MLB with 142 home runs.

Cade Povich will start for the Orioles. Although he’s considered a below-average pitcher, his 4.05 ERA and 1-2 record are respectable. However, his 5.57 xFIP hints at potential regression. Povich’s last start was decent, going five innings with two earned runs and no walks. He faces an Athletics team that ranks 27th in offense and 29th in batting average but surprisingly 7th in home runs, indicating they can still pack a punch despite their struggles.

Baltimore’s offense, ranked 2nd overall, should give Povich plenty of support. With Gunnar Henderson leading the charge, boasting a .288 batting average and 27 home runs, the Orioles are well-positioned to capitalize on Medina’s weaknesses. The Athletics’ bullpen, ranked 8th, will need to be sharp to keep the game close, though Baltimore’s bullpen is not far behind at 10th.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Orioles to score 5.10 runs on average in this game, while the Athletics are projected to score 4.06 runs. With the implied win probability for Baltimore at 59% and the projection slightly higher, the Orioles appear to be the safer bet to continue their winning ways.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Cade Povich will surrender an average of 2.42 earned runs in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Gunnar Henderson has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last season’s 92-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Luis Medina – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Medina has utilized his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.7% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Brett Harris – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Brett Harris is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Baltimore (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Tyler Nevin has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+14.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+110/-145)
  Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 59% ROI)