Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-165
The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins meet for the second game of their series on August 14, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. After a surprising shutout loss to the Marlins by a score of 5-0 in their last game, the Phillies will look to bounce back. Currently, the Phillies sit at 69-50, enjoying a strong season, while the Marlins are struggling at 45-75.
Tyler Phillips is projected to take the mound for the Phillies. Despite being ranked as the 250th best starting pitcher in MLB, Phillips holds a solid 4-1 record this year, although his 4.83 ERA suggests he’s been below average. His xFIP of 4.06 indicates he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement. However, he faces a unique challenge against a Marlins offense that ranks as the 29th best in MLB, making this matchup favorable for him.
Edward Cabrera, on the other hand, will start for the Marlins. Ranked 75th among MLB starters, Cabrera has a 2-3 record with a 5.20 ERA. His high walk rate of 12.5% could be problematic against a Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks drawn. This dynamic suggests the Phillies’ patient hitters may capitalize on Cabrera’s control issues.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Phillies, who are expected to score around 4.70 runs, significantly higher than the Marlins’ average of 4.09 runs. With a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, the Phillies are positioned as strong favorites for this matchup, making them an appealing option for bettors looking to capitalize on their recent performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Edward Cabrera’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 93rd percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Jake Burger has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 99.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Tyler Phillips has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Bryce Harper has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 34.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is inflated compared to his 23.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The Philadelphia Phillies have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 10.5° figure is among the lowest in baseball this year (#29 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 54 games at home (+13.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+190/-255)Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 48 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)