Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Yankees vs Guardians – Wednesday, April 23, 2025

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

On April 23, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees at Progressive Field for the third game of their series. The Yankees, currently sitting at 14-10, have the edge in the standings over the Guardians, who are 14-9 this season. Both teams are performing well, with the Yankees ranking 1st in offensive production in MLB, bolstered by a powerful lineup that leads the league in home runs. Meanwhile, the Guardians, despite their strong start, rank 16th in offensive efficiency.

In their last game, the Yankees showcased their dominance, winning decisively and continuing their trend of high-scoring performances. The Guardians will be looking to bounce back, relying on their elite bullpen, which ranks 1st in MLB, to keep the game close.

Cleveland is projected to start Luis Ortiz, a right-handed pitcher with a 2-2 record and a disappointing ERA of 5.48 this season. However, his xFIP of 3.76 suggests he may have been a bit unlucky thus far, hinting at a potential turnaround. Ortiz’s average projections show he is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings while allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs today.

On the other hand, the Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, a left-handed pitcher who has a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.34. Rodon’s projections indicate he could pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing about 2.6 earned runs, which aligns with his status as an average pitcher this season.

Cleveland’s offense, while capable, faces a tough challenge against a Yankees bullpen ranked 12th overall. With the Guardians currently an underdog at +125, the projections suggest they might struggle to keep pace with the high-octane Yankees lineup. As both teams look to assert their dominance, this matchup promises to be a compelling watch for fans and bettors alike.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Carlos Rodon’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (92.5 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Paul Goldschmidt has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .346 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Given that groundball batters have a sizeable edge over flyball pitchers, Luis L. Ortiz and his 43.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in today’s outing squaring off against 0 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jhonkensy Noel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jhonkensy Noel’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.6-mph now compared to just 88.6-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 38% ROI)