Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Twins vs Rangers – Saturday, August 17, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

Texas Rangers

On August 17, 2024, the Texas Rangers will look to bounce back against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field after a close 4-3 loss in their last game. This matchup marks the third in the series between these two clubs and features the Rangers, who hold a record of 56-67, struggling this season, while the Twins stand at 69-53, having a solid year.

Nathan Eovaldi, the Rangers’ projected starter, has shown flashes of brilliance, ranking as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite an abbreviated outing in his last start where he allowed three earned runs over three innings, Eovaldi boasts a respectable 3.75 ERA for the season. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings today but faces a challenge as he has been prone to allowing hits, with a projection of 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks.

On the other side, David Festa is set to take the mound for the Twins. Ranking 84th among MLB starters, he has struggled this season, carrying a high ERA of 5.20. Festa’s last outing was also abbreviated, yielding one earned run in three innings. The projections suggest he may be due for some improvement, as his xFIP of 3.79 indicates potential luck issues.

The Rangers’ offense, ranked 23rd overall, will need to step up against a potent Twins lineup that ranks 6th in MLB. Power hitters like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia will be crucial for Texas, especially with the Rangers projected to score 4.57 runs today. Meanwhile, the Twins’ leading hitter, Willi Castro, adds strength to a team that typically performs well.

Betting odds favor the Rangers with a moneyline of -140, which might undervalue their projected win probability of 61% according to the leading MLB projection system. As the Rangers aim to reverse their fortunes, they will rely on Eovaldi’s performance and their ability to capitalize on Minnesota’s pitching struggles.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts David Festa in the 86th percentile among all SPs in the league.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starters, Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball spin rate of 2188 rpm is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In the past two weeks, Jonah Heim’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games at home (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Wyatt Langford has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 30 games (+16.90 Units / 54% ROI)