Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Rays vs Twins – Saturday, July 05, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 5, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Twins have been struggling this season with a record of 42-46, while the Rays are faring much better at 48-40. In their last game on July 4, the Twins managed to edge out the Rays with a 4-3 victory, further emphasizing the competitive nature of this matchup.

Cole Sands is projected to take the mound for the Twins, and his recent performance raises concerns. He projects to pitch just 1.0 innings on average today, allowing 0.6 earned runs, with a troubling projection of 1.1 hits. In contrast, Taj Bradley will start for the Rays. Although his 4.79 ERA is below average, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky this season, with a more favorable 4.15 xFIP. Bradley’s ability to pitch 5.3 innings on average with 5.1 strikeouts could give the Rays an edge.

Offensively, the Twins rank 19th in MLB and have struggled particularly with a .227 team batting average, ranking 23rd. The Rays, however, boast the 10th best offense, highlighted by a stellar .267 batting average, which ranks 3rd in the league. This disparity in offensive production could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

The current Game Total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an active scoring game. Both teams have an implied team total of 5.00 runs, indicating a competitive atmosphere. With the Twins’ bullpen ranking 6th in MLB, they may have a chance to hold off the Rays if Sands can limit the damage early. Given the current odds, the Twins may be undervalued in this matchup, making them an intriguing option for bettors looking for value.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Taj Bradley (43.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jonathan Aranda has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.2-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Travis Adams in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Kody Clemens hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.0 (-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 away games (+15.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 45% ROI)