Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
(-120/+100)+110
As the Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays prepare for their matchup on July 5, 2025, they find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins sit below .500 with a record of 42-46, while the Rays are above average at 48-40. This game marks the second in a series that saw the Rays take the first contest, highlighting their current momentum.
The Twins will send Connor Gillispie to the mound, a right-handed pitcher struggling this season with an 0-3 record and a troubling ERA of 8.65. Despite his poor performance, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.91, indicating potential for improvement. However, with an average projection of only 4.2 innings pitched today, he may be hard-pressed to keep the Rays’ potent lineup in check.
On the other side, Taj Bradley will take the ball for Tampa Bay. With a more favorable 5-6 record and an ERA of 4.79, Bradley’s performance has been characterized as average. Projections suggest he will pitch about 5.3 innings, allowing around 3.1 earned runs, which may be enough to secure a victory, especially given the Rays’ offensive prowess. They rank 7th in MLB, showcasing a strong batting average of .270, and have a high implied team total of 4.97 runs for this game.
With the Twins’ offense ranking only 22nd in MLB, the matchup heavily favors the Rays. Minnesota’s best hitter has performed well recently, but Tampa Bay’s top player boasts a 0.333 batting average and an impressive 1.128 OPS over the past week. Given the projections and current form, Tampa Bay appears poised to capitalize on their strengths and secure another win in this series.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Taj Bradley (43.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under Total BasesJonathan Aranda has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.3-mph in the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Tampa Bay Rays – 2H MoneylineThe Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Connor Gillispie – Over/Under StrikeoutsDespite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Connor Gillispie must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 70.7% of the time, grading out in the 96th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Extreme groundball batters like Byron Buxton tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Royce Lewis hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.