Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Rangers vs Cardinals – Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Texas Rangers

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers are set to face off on July 31, 2024, at Busch Stadium for the third game of their interleague series. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Cardinals holding a 54-52 record and the Rangers at 52-55. This game will feature a pitching duel between right-hander Sonny Gray for the Cardinals and left-hander Andrew Heaney for the Rangers.

The Cardinals’ offense has been middling this season, ranking 14th in MLB in team batting average but struggling in the power department, sitting at 22nd in home runs. Their speed on the basepaths hasn’t been much better, ranking 20th in stolen bases. On the flip side, the Rangers’ offense ranks 18th in batting average, 17th in home runs, and 21st in stolen bases, making this a matchup of two evenly matched offenses.

Sonny Gray, who will take the mound for St. Louis, has been a steady presence in the rotation. His ability to keep the ball in the park and generate strikeouts will be crucial against a Rangers offense that has shown flashes of power but has been inconsistent overall. Andrew Heaney, the Rangers’ starter, will look to stymie a Cardinals lineup that has been led by Paul Goldschmidt over the last week. Goldschmidt has been on a tear, batting .304 with a .957 OPS, including 2 home runs in his last 6 games.

On the other side, the Rangers will rely on Nate Lowe, who has been their best hitter over the past week. Lowe has posted a .348 batting average and a 1.152 OPS, with 2 home runs and 7 RBIs in his last 7 games. His hot bat will be crucial in providing the Rangers with the offensive spark they need to challenge Gray.

In a game where both teams have shown average performance levels throughout the season, the individual matchups and recent player form could tip the scales. With Sonny Gray’s strong pitching and Paul Goldschmidt’s recent form, the Cardinals might have the slight edge going into this contest. However, Andrew Heaney’s ability to neutralize St. Louis’ offense could make this a tightly contested game.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Andrew Heaney’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph drop off from last year’s 91.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Josh Jung is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Michael McGreevy (48.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.7-mph figure last season has dropped to 86.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats collectively place 28th- in baseball for power this year when using their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 87 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-185)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.85 Units / 109% ROI)