Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-105
On April 4, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Royals sitting at 2-4 and the Orioles slightly ahead at 3-4. The Royals are looking to bounce back after a narrow loss to the Orioles in their last game on April 2, where they fell 3-2. Meanwhile, the Orioles suffered a more significant defeat, losing 8-4 in their last outing.
Projected starters Seth Lugo for the Royals and Dean Kremer for the Orioles both come into this matchup with rocky beginnings to their seasons. Lugo has a 5.40 ERA, which is concerning, and his 6.33 xERA suggests he may be due for a downturn. Conversely, Kremer’s ERA is a troubling 8.44, but his 3.85 xFIP indicates he might be performing better than his numbers suggest, hinting at potential improvement.
Offensively, the Royals have struggled, ranking 41st in MLB in overall offense and 39th in batting average. In contrast, the Orioles boast a more respectable ranking, sitting at 11th in overall offense and 9th in team batting average. This disparity could play a crucial role in the game, especially given that Lugo is a high-flyball pitcher facing an Orioles lineup that has already hit 11 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB.
The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with both teams having an implied total of just 3.75 runs. With the Royals’ offense in a slump and the Orioles showing signs of life, this matchup could tilt in favor of Baltimore, especially if Kremer finds his footing against a struggling Kansas City lineup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Dean Kremer is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Seth Lugo meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games (+16.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+210/-285)Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)