Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs White Sox – Friday, July 26, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Chicago White Sox

On July 26, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Guaranteed Rate Field in the first game of their series. Both teams come off narrow 2-1 losses: the White Sox to the Texas Rangers and the Mariners to the Los Angeles Angels. The White Sox have had a dismal season with a 27-78 record, while the Mariners sit at a more respectable 53-51, showcasing an average season.

The pitching matchup features Drew Thorpe for the White Sox and George Kirby for the Mariners, both right-handers. Thorpe, with a 3-1 record and a solid 3.03 ERA, has started just seven games this season and has been somewhat fortunate, as his 5.19 xFIP suggests he’s due for regression. Kirby, on the other hand, brings an impressive resume as the #13 best starting pitcher, boasting a 7-7 record and a 3.20 ERA over 21 starts. His peripherals indicate his performance is sustainable.

The White Sox’s offense ranks last in MLB in both overall talent and batting average, while their power output isn’t much better at 28th in home runs. Their bullpen struggles mightily, rated the worst in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their lone bright spot has been Andrew Vaughn, although Korey Lee has shown some recent promise.

The Mariners, while slightly better, still rank 28th in overall offensive talent and dead last in batting average. However, with the 14th most home runs and 11th most stolen bases, they have some dynamic elements. Cal Raleigh has been their standout performer, and Mitch Haniger has been hot recently, sporting a .885 OPS over his last four games.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees some value in the White Sox despite their underwhelming season. While the betting market gives them an implied win probability of 38%, the projections suggest a slightly better 43% chance of pulling off an upset. This discrepancy might present a betting opportunity for those willing to back an unlikely underdog.

Given Kirby’s elite status and the Mariners’ better bullpen, Seattle remains the favorite, but don’t count out the White Sox entirely, as their inconsistent performance may surprise.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Tallying 17.7 outs per start this year on average, George Kirby places in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In comparison to his 89.6-mph average last year, Cal Raleigh’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Seattle Mariners bats jointly have been among the best in MLB this year (4th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Drew Thorpe – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andrew Thorpe’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (67% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Andrew Benintendi has been unlucky this year, compiling a .246 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .066 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+6.75 Units / 7% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+7.50 Units / 22% ROI)