Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Rangers – Friday, September 20, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers host the Seattle Mariners on September 20, 2024, both teams are navigating the final stretch of the season with different narratives. The Rangers, with a 73-80 record, are having a below-average season, while the Mariners stand at 78-75, showcasing a more balanced performance. This American League West clash at Globe Life Field will feature two of the league’s top right-handers, Jacob deGrom and George Kirby, setting the stage for a potential pitching duel.

Jacob deGrom, ranked 10th among MLB starting pitchers, has had an extraordinary season, albeit with limited appearances. Despite an ERA of 0.00, his advanced metrics suggest some luck has been involved, as indicated by his 3.87 xFIP. Meanwhile, George Kirby, ranked 22nd, carries a solid 3.62 ERA over 31 starts, demonstrating reliability and consistency.

In their previous outings, the Rangers were shut out 4-0 by the Blue Jays, while the Mariners edged out a 3-2 victory over the Yankees. Both teams encountered close games, highlighting their recent struggles and successes. The Rangers’ offense, ranked 25th in MLB, faces a considerable challenge against Kirby, who projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs on average today.

The Mariners, ranked 22nd offensively, may find it tough against deGrom, who projects to allow only 1.7 earned runs. However, with the Rangers’ bullpen ranked 5th compared to the Mariners’ 20th, late-game opportunities could be pivotal.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Rangers’ implied win probability at 54% and the Mariners at 46%. Interestingly, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 51% win probability. As both teams vie for a strong finish, this matchup promises to be a compelling battle on the mound.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  George Kirby has tallied 17.3 outs per start this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Justin Turner is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Luke Raley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  With a 1.67 deviation between Jacob deGrom’s 12.97 K/9 and his 11.30 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season when it comes to strikeouts and ought to see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Adolis Garcia has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 80-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 away games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 17% ROI)