Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+150
On August 25, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park for the third game of their series. Currently, the Marlins sit at 46-83, enduring a disappointing season, while the Cubs hold a slightly better record at 65-65, marking them as an average team. Despite their struggles, the Marlins may have a glimmer of hope, especially with the Cubs’ projected starter, Javier Assad, showing signs of being lucky this season. His xFIP of 4.61 suggests that his 3.11 ERA may not be sustainable, potentially allowing Miami’s hitters to capitalize.
Miami’s Adam Oller, projected to start, has had a rough go this year, with an ERA of 9.64 and a Win/Loss record of 0-1. Although he has only started one game, his high walk rate of 17.4% could play into the Cubs’ hands, as they rank 5th in the league in drawing walks. However, Cubs hitters have struggled with consistency, ranking 18th in overall offensive performance and 23rd in team batting average.
The Marlins may benefit from recent performances, particularly their best hitter, Vidal Brujan, who has been productive over the last week with a .429 batting average and a 1.127 OPS. If he can spark the lineup, Miami’s chances may improve, especially since the projections indicate they could score around 3.76 runs. In contrast, the Cubs are projected for a higher total of 4.74 runs, suggesting a challenge for the Marlins’ struggling bullpen, currently ranked 28th.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Javier Assad – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Javier Assad’s 2037-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.6% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)Adam Oller is projected to allow an average of 3.07 earned runs in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.344) provides evidence that Jesus Sanchez has been unlucky this year with his .301 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Connor Norby, Jake Burger).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 55 games at home (+22.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 111 games (+6.15 Units / 5% ROI)
- Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 64% ROI)