Check Out Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Cardinals vs Phillies – Monday, May 12, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park on May 12, 2025. Currently, the Phillies hold a record of 24-16, sitting comfortably in a competitive division, while the Cardinals are 22-19 and have been playing above average. This matchup marks the first game of the series and a critical opportunity for both teams to gain momentum as they look to solidify their standings.

In their most recent outings, the Phillies secured a convincing 3-0 victory, while the Cardinals bounced back with a 6-1 win of their own. Notably, Cristopher Sanchez is projected to start for Philadelphia, boasting an impressive 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.89, placing him as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His recent form includes a stellar performance on May 7, where he pitched six scoreless innings, further enhancing his reputation as an elite pitcher.

Conversely, St. Louis will counter with Matthew Liberatore, who has a 3-3 record and a solid 3.07 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been unlucky this season, potentially improving as the year progresses. Despite this, Liberatore faces a Phillies offense ranked 9th overall and 6th in batting average, which could pose a significant challenge.

Betting odds favor the Phillies, who have an implied team total of 4.77 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Liberatore’s inconsistencies. While the Cardinals have shown flashes of offensive prowess, their overall ranking at 8th in MLB pales compared to the Phillies’ outstanding hitting depth. This game could serve as a crucial turning point for both teams as they navigate the regular season.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Recording 17.6 outs per GS this year on average, Matthew Liberatore ranks in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.4) provides evidence that Pedro Pages has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 16.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 7 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Cristopher Sanchez will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+4.45 Units / 56% ROI)