Check Out Braves vs Marlins Picks and Betting Tips – Saturday September 21st, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on September 21, 2024, the teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League East. The Marlins, with a dismal 57-97 record, are struggling at the bottom of the division, while the Braves, sitting at 83-71, are having an above-average season and looking to secure their postseason status. Miami pulled off an upset in the series opener, winning 4-3, against the odds.

On the mound, the Marlins will start Adam Oller, who ranks as the 322nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Oller’s season has been tough, with a 5.40 ERA, and his last outing mirrored this with an uneventful performance. The Braves, however, counter with Max Fried, an elite left-hander ranked 5th in MLB. Despite a slightly disappointing 9-10 record, Fried’s 3.49 ERA showcases his effectiveness, although he allowed three earned runs in his last start.

The Marlins offense, ranked 29th in MLB, lacks power, sitting 28th in home runs. Their lineup will need to capitalize on Fried’s tendency to allow hits and walks. Meanwhile, the Braves’ lineup, powered by Marcell Ozuna, who boasts a .307 batting average and 38 home runs, ranks 4th in team home runs. This matchup against Oller, a high-flyball pitcher, could be advantageous for Atlanta’s potent bats.

The Marlins’ bullpen, ranked last, will face pressure against a Braves team with the 7th best bullpen. While Miami looks to build on its unexpected win, projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, give the Braves a significant edge with a 69% chance of victory. The Marlins, however, will hope to defy the odds once more in this divisional clash at LoanDepot Park.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Out of all SPs, Max Fried’s fastball spin rate of 2218 rpm grades out in the 25th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Matt Olson has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Adam Oller is expected to ring up an average of 4 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Typically, batters like Derek Hill who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Cristian Pache, Jesus Sanchez, Derek Hill, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+20.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 127 games (+25.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+120)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)