Toronto Blue Jays
Arizona Diamondbacks
(-120/+100)-155
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays square off in the final game of their series on July 14, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, who currently hold a 49-47 record, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, with a 43-52 record, are struggling this year. Arizona’s recent form has been encouraging; they demolished Toronto 12-1 yesterday, and they’re looking to carry that momentum into today’s contest.
Zac Gallen takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Ranked as the #14 best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gallen has been a reliable ace this season. With a 6-5 record and a 3.33 ERA, Gallen’s numbers are impressive, although his 4.08 xERA suggests he might have been slightly fortunate. In his last start on July 9, Gallen had an uneventful outing, pitching 5 innings with 4 earned runs. Today, he projects to go 6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.9 batters.
The Blue Jays will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who ranks as the #84 starting pitcher in MLB. Kikuchi holds a 4-8 record and a 4.00 ERA, but his 3.26 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. In his last start, Kikuchi shone, pitching 7 innings with 2 earned runs and a remarkable 13 strikeouts. Today, he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.1 innings, with 5 strikeouts.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks have the edge. They rank 9th in MLB, with strong batting averages and decent power. Their standout player, Christian Walker, has been a consistent force, batting .264 with 22 home runs and an .843 OPS. Over the last week, Eugenio Suarez has been on a tear, blasting 4 home runs with a 1.203 OPS.
In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 23rd and has struggled with power and consistency. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains their best hitter, posting a .284 average and 13 home runs, but he hasn’t been able to lift the team out of their offensive slump.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 60% win probability, making them a solid favorite. Given their recent form, superior pitching, and more potent offense, Arizona looks poised to secure a series sweep against Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Yusei Kikuchi’s curveball rate has spiked by 5.8% from last year to this one (19.3% to 25.1%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)In the last two weeks, Daulton Varsho’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively rank among the worst in the majors this year ( 4th-worst) in regard to their 88-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)Zac Gallen’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94.6 mph) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (92.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Jake McCarthy’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 88.5-mph average last season has decreased to 85.5-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Ketel Marte projects as the 20th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)