Cardinals vs Yankees Betting Guide and Expert Picks August 31st, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face off against the St. Louis Cardinals on August 31, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams, albeit for different reasons. The Yankees currently sit with a strong 79-56 record, showcasing their dominance this season, while the Cardinals are struggling at 67-68, marking an average year. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it’s the second game in the series, with the Yankees looking to build on their recent success.

In their last outing, the Yankees played exceptionally well, leveraging their 1st ranked offense in MLB, which has been a significant factor in their success. The Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has had a rough season with a 0-2 record and a dismal ERA of 9.68. However, his xFIP of 3.99 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve. On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has a 7-6 record and a more respectable 4.54 ERA, though his projections indicate he may be due for a downturn.

The Yankees’ offense, which ranks 2nd in home runs, will be looking to capitalize on Gibson’s struggles, as he projects to allow 3.3 earned runs and 5.4 hits in an average outing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, who rank 19th in offense, will need a standout performance from Paul Goldschmidt, who has been on fire lately with a .571 batting average over the past week.

The leading MLB projection system suggests a high-scoring game with a total set at 9.5 runs, favoring the Yankees with a projected team total of 5.63 runs. Given the Yankees’ current form and their home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium, they are positioned as significant favorites in this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Kyle Gibson has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph mark last season has dropped off to 87.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 squad in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Will Warren’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (55.3% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive ability to be a .429, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .054 difference between that figure and his actual .483 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+16.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+4.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+11.45 Units / 50% ROI)