Cardinals vs Royals Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Saturday August 10, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on August 10, 2024, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Royals currently sit with a record of 64-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Cardinals are at 60-57, having a season that’s considered average. This game marks the second in the series, with the Royals looking to bounce back after a tough 8-5 loss to the Cardinals the previous day.

Starting for the Royals will be Michael Wacha, who has had a solid season with an 8-6 record and a respectable ERA of 3.55. However, his 4.28 xFIP suggests that he may have experienced some good fortune this year. On the opposing mound, Andre Pallante takes the ball for the Cardinals. Pallante’s 4.43 ERA is average, but his 3.90 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results moving forward.

Both teams have shown mixed offensive performances this season. The Royals rank 12th in MLB in overall offense and 11th in batting average, while the Cardinals sit at 17th in offense. Notably, Kansas City’s best hitter, Bobby Witt Jr., has been a key contributor, boasting a .346 batting average and 22 home runs this season. Meanwhile, Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals with a .278 batting average.

Betting markets reflect a close contest, with the Royals currently favored at -120 and an implied team total of 4.61 runs. Projections suggest that the Royals are likely to score around 4.77 runs, while the Cardinals are expected to tally 4.79 runs. With both teams coming off a competitive game, this matchup promises to be another closely contested battle at Kauffman Stadium.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Andre Pallante’s high usage rate of his fastball (69.1% this year) is likely harming his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.8) suggests that Willson Contreras has had some very good luck this year with his 29.3 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Today, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Michael Wacha’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.5 mph this year (92.9 mph) over where it was last season (91.4 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Paul DeJong has big-time HR ability (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Andre Pallante has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Kansas City has been the #29 group of hitters in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (41.3% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 45 games (+22.30 Units / 50% ROI)