Cardinals vs Reds Insights and Game Breakdown – 8/14/2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals continue their crucial series on August 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested battle for average records. The Reds sit at 59-61, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 60-60. This matchup is significant as both teams aim to build momentum, especially after the Reds secured a convincing 4-1 victory against the Cardinals in the previous game.

Cincinnati will turn to Emilio Pagan, who is projected to pitch just 1.0 innings today. Although Pagan has made 23 appearances this season, he has struggled as a starter, holding a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and a mediocre ERA of 4.22. His peripheral indicators suggest he has been a bit unlucky, but projections indicate he may allow 0.6 earned runs and 0.9 hits, which raises concerns given his limited innings.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson, who is set to pitch around 5.2 innings. Gibson has had a solid year with a 3.99 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 7-4, but the projections indicate he might be due for some regression, as he’s projected to allow 3.1 earned runs and an alarming 5.6 hits per outing.

Looking at the offensive side, the Reds have an average offense ranked 16th overall, but they boast an impressive 1st ranking in stolen bases this season. Elly De La Cruz has been a standout player, while over the last week, Spencer Steer has been particularly hot with a .474 batting average and 9 RBIs.

The Cardinals, ranked 20th in overall offense, will rely on their best hitter, Alec Burleson. With both teams having a Game Total currently set at 9.0 runs, the betting outlook remains tight, with each team seeing a moneyline of -110. The projections suggest that while it’s a close matchup, the Reds could outscore the Cardinals, potentially taking advantage of their recent offensive surge.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Recording 92 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Kyle Gibson places in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Tommy Pham is penciled in 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Emilio Pagan – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+190/-255)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Emilio Pagan has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 73.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Elly De La Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.2-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cincinnati Reds with a 24.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games at home (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 25 games (+18.00 Units / 72% ROI)