St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-170
On August 4, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium for the first game of their series. The Dodgers currently hold a strong position with a record of 65-47, while the Cardinals sit at 56-57, indicating an average season. Despite the Cardinals’ efforts, they are not contending for a playoff spot, making this matchup crucial for Los Angeles as they aim to solidify their position.
In their previous game, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess, highlighted by their ranking as the 2nd best offense in MLB this season. They are also 4th in team batting average and 2nd in home runs. With their best hitter recently going 12-for-25 with a .480 batting average and 1.319 OPS over the last week, the Dodgers appear poised to capitalize on the Cardinals’ pitching.
Tyler Glasnow is projected to start for the Dodgers, bringing a 1-1 record and a solid 3.38 ERA this season. While Glasnow’s 4.57 FIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, his ability to strike out 6.4 batters on average gives him an edge against the Cardinals’ lineup. Sonny Gray, the Cardinals’ starter, has a 10-5 record and a 4.38 ERA, although his underlying metrics indicate he’s been unlucky, with a 2.94 xFIP suggesting better days ahead.
The Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 4.57 runs. Conversely, the Cardinals, facing a daunting challenge, hold a moneyline of +160 and a low implied team total of 3.43 runs. With the Dodgers’ elite offense and Glasnow on the mound, they seem to have the upper hand in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Sonny Gray’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 92.3-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Willson Contreras has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 95.9-mph over the past two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)Generating 13.3 outs per GS this year on average, Tyler Glasnow falls in the 5th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Despite posting a .291 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mookie Betts has been unlucky given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-170)The best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 68 games (+9.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+165/-220)Michael Conforto has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.75 Units / 32% ROI)