Cardinals vs Cubs Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 7/04/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

On July 4, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field in what marks the first game of a pivotal series between these two National League Central rivals. The Cubs are currently riding high with a record of 52-35, showcasing one of the best offenses in MLB as they rank 4th overall. Meanwhile, the Cardinals sit at 47-41, presenting an average offensive performance ranked 15th in the league.

Both teams enter this matchup following contrasting results in their last games. The Cubs secured a narrow victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, winning 1-0, while the Cardinals were blanked by the Cincinnati Reds in a 5-0 loss. This stark difference in momentum could play a crucial role as the Cubs look to capitalize on their strong season.

Colin Rea is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Although he ranks as the 252nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he has managed a respectable 4.37 ERA this year, suggesting he may have had some luck on his side. Rea’s last outing was a solid one, where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. On the other side, Miles Mikolas will pitch for the Cardinals. With a 4.76 ERA and a concerning last start where he allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings, he’s been struggling and ranks as one of the worst pitchers in the league.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs, the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities against a struggling opponent. If Chicago can exploit Mikolas’ tendency to give up fly balls and turn those into home runs, they could very well position themselves for another win in their quest to solidify their standing in the division.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Lars Nootbaar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 96.1-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 8th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Colin Rea’s four-seamer utilization has risen by 25.1% from last season to this one (19.9% to 45%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Typically, hitters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-140/+110)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)