Cardinals vs Cubs Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 7/04/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 4, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two rivals in the National League Central. The Cubs enter this game with a solid record of 52-35, showcasing their strong play this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals sit at 47-41, presenting an above-average performance but still trailing behind the Cubs in the standings.

In their last outing, the Cubs faced off against the Cardinals and secured a convincing victory, further solidifying their position in the division. Colin Rea is slated to take the mound for the Cubs, bringing a 5-3 record and an average ERA of 4.37. While his advanced stats suggest he’s been somewhat lucky this season, Rea’s ability to pitch around trouble has kept the Cubs competitive. He projects to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs, which is below average.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, who has struggled with a 4-5 record and a below-average ERA of 4.76. Mikolas has faced challenges this season, projecting to allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.0 innings. His low strikeout rate of 16.1% could be a concern against a Cubs offense that ranks 4th in MLB, boasting significant power with 125 home runs this season.

With the Cubs’ potent lineup against a struggling pitcher like Mikolas, the projections favor the Cubs, who have an implied team total of 5.21 runs for this matchup. The Cardinals, despite their average offensive ranking, will need to find a way to capitalize on their opportunities to keep pace in this series opener.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Miles Mikolas is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Lars Nootbaar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 96-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Colin Rea’s four-seamer utilization has risen by 25.1% from last season to this one (19.9% to 45%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Typically, hitters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.95 Units / 99% ROI)