Cardinals vs Cubs Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Sunday July 6, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

In a pivotal National League Central matchup on July 6, 2025, the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. The Cubs are riding high, boasting a strong record of 53-36, while the Cardinals are holding their own at 48-42. This series has significant implications, especially with the Cubs aiming to solidify their position in the division. In their last matchup, the Cardinals fell to the Cubs, which adds extra pressure as they look to rebound.

Matthew Boyd is expected to take the mound for the Cubs, and he’s had an impressive season so far, with a stellar Win/Loss record of 8-3 and an excellent ERA of 2.65. Boyd ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB, and his performance suggests he could be a key factor in today’s game. However, his xFIP of 4.00 indicates that he may be due for a regression. Boyd’s projections show he’s likely to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs, and strike out 5.8 batters.

On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has had a rough go this season, posting a 3-8 record and a 4.56 ERA. Fedde has also been less effective as a strikeout pitcher and struggles with control, reflected in his high walk rate. Facing a Cubs offense that ranks 4th in MLB, Fedde could find himself in a tough position, especially since Chicago excels at drawing walks.

With the Cubs’ offense ranking among the best in the league—3rd in home runs and 6th in batting average—they are well-positioned to exploit Fedde’s weaknesses. The projections favor the Cubs, who hold a high implied team total of 4.37 runs. Given these dynamics, bettors might want to consider placing their bets on the Cubs to come out on top in this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 6.4% less often this year (62.5%) than he did last season (68.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  In the past 7 days, Willson Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-205)
  Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Seiya Suzuki has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 99.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  In today’s matchup, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.8% rate (91st percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-205)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 87 games (+12.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+180)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Busch has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)