Cardinals vs Cubs Betting Line and Odds – August 02, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

In this National League Central matchup on August 2, 2024, the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with the Cubs holding a 53-58 record and the Cardinals at 56-53. The Cubs recently pulled off a close victory against the Cardinals, winning 5-4 on August 1, showcasing their resilience in a season that has been anything but smooth.

Starting for the Cubs is Javier Assad, who has had a mixed year with a 5-3 record and a solid 3.23 ERA. However, his 4.53 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some luck this season, suggesting he could face challenges moving forward. In his last outing on July 28, Assad pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which was deemed an uneventful start. He is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs this game, but with a tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.7 walks on average, the Cardinals may find opportunities to score.

On the other side, Erick Fedde takes the mound for the Cardinals, carrying a 7-4 record and an impressive 3.11 ERA. Fedde is also projected to allow 2.4 earned runs, with a solid strikeout rate of 5.4 batters per game. Despite his recent performance on July 27, where he allowed 3 earned runs in just 4 innings, he remains a stronger option compared to Assad based on overall season metrics.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 21st in MLB this season, while the Cardinals find themselves slightly better at 17th. Both teams feature key hitters, with Ian Happ representing the Cubs and Alec Burleson for the Cardinals. The projections suggest a tight contest, with the Cubs expected to score 3.93 runs and the Cardinals at 4.06 runs. Betting lines are set evenly, reflecting the anticipated competitiveness of this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 70.1% of the time, checking in at the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tommy Pham is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 99% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals batters as a group place 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Javier Assad’s 2041-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 10th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-215/+165)
  Nico Hoerner has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 81.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+13.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+17.05 Units / 47% ROI)