Brewers vs Reds Match Preview and Winning Probability – Friday August 30, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 30, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions within the National League Central. The Brewers, sporting a strong record of 78-56, find themselves in a playoff race, while the Reds, at 64-71, are having a below-average season and are unlikely to contend for a postseason spot. In their last matchup, the Reds narrowly edged out the Athletics, winning 10-9, while the Brewers enjoyed a dominant 6-0 victory over the Giants.

In this second game of a double-header, the Reds are projected to start Rhett Lowder, who ranks as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His struggles are evident, as he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.1 hits. Meanwhile, D.L. Hall of the Brewers, who has had a challenging season with an ERA of 6.43, is also looking to find his form. While Hall’s xFIP suggests he may improve, he still projects to yield 3.1 earned runs over 4.5 innings.

The Reds’ offense ranks 16th overall in MLB, but their batting average is a concerning 27th. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league, which could be crucial against a Brewers pitching staff that has shown vulnerabilities. The Brewers, on the other hand, boast the 9th best offense, highlighted by Willy Adames, who leads with 24 home runs and a solid batting average.

The projections favor the Reds with a high implied team total of 4.86 runs, suggesting they could perform better than expected today. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, fans can anticipate an exciting matchup that could swing in favor of the Reds if Lowder can outperform his projections.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Blake Perkins is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.305 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .321 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder will “start” for Cincinnati Reds in today’s game but will server as an opener and may not go more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Noelvi Marte has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 80.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Rece Hinds – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Rece Hinds has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+16.20 Units / 231% ROI)