Brewers vs Pirates Game Highlights – Thursday, September 26, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers gear up for the third game in their series on September 26, 2024, both teams find themselves with contrasting fortunes this season. The Pirates, with a 74-84 record, have struggled, while the Brewers, at 90-68, are enjoying a strong campaign. This National League Central matchup at PNC Park holds significance for the Brewers as they aim to solidify their playoff position.

In their last encounter, the Pirates edged out a 2-1 victory, showcasing their ability to compete even in a challenging season. Mitch Keller, projected to start for Pittsburgh, will look to bounce back after a rough outing where he allowed eight earned runs in just three innings. Despite his struggles, Keller’s control has been a bright spot, as he faces a Brewers lineup known for drawing walks. This could be a pivotal aspect of the game, as Keller’s ability to limit free passes might neutralize one of Milwaukee’s offensive strengths.

On the mound for the Brewers is Aaron Civale, whose recent performance has been inconsistent. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB, struggling to generate power with just 151 home runs this season. Civale’s high-flyball tendencies might play to his advantage against a team that rarely turns flyballs into home runs.

Offensively, the Brewers boast the 10th-best lineup, with Willy Adames leading the charge. Adames has been a powerhouse, contributing significantly with 32 home runs. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds remains their standout performer, though the Pirates’ offensive struggles are evident in their low rankings.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Brewers slightly favored. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests this matchup is a toss-up, projecting both teams with an equal chance of winning. With both teams having something to prove, expect an intriguing contest in Pittsburgh.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Aaron Civale is projected to throw 84 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Garrett Mitchell has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.6% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Garrett Mitchell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Mitch Keller has used his cut-fastball 8.9% less often this season (15.4%) than he did last year (24.3%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 95.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jared Triolo, Liover Peguero, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games at home (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-150)
  Garrett Mitchell has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)