Brewers vs Dodgers Game Highlights – July 06, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers continue their home series against the Milwaukee Brewers on July 6, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Dodgers boasting a 54-35 record and the Brewers close behind at 52-37. This game is crucial, as it features two of the top teams in the National League, jockeying for playoff positioning. The Dodgers took the first game of the series yesterday, winning 8-5, and will look to keep their momentum going.

James Paxton will take the mound for the Dodgers. Despite a respectable 7-2 record, Paxton’s underlying stats suggest he’s been fortunate this season. He has an average 4.28 ERA, but his 5.18 xFIP indicates that he might regress. Paxton got shelled in his last start, allowing 9 earned runs on 12 hits and 2 walks over 4 innings, which raises concerns about his current form.

On the other side, the Brewers will start Freddy Peralta. Peralta has been one of the elite pitchers this season, ranked 11th in the advanced Power Rankings. He has a solid 6-4 record with a 3.83 ERA, and his 3.21 SIERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. Peralta was excellent in his last outing, pitching 7 innings of one-run ball with 8 strikeouts, 2 hits, and 2 walks.

The Dodgers’ offense is a powerhouse, ranking 1st overall in MLB, 4th in team batting average, and 3rd in home runs. They could pose a significant threat to Peralta, especially since he is a high-flyball pitcher. This aligns poorly against a Dodgers lineup that thrives on power, making Peralta’s task daunting.

Meanwhile, the Brewers’ offense, ranking 10th overall and 4th in batting average, will look to exploit Paxton’s control issues. Milwaukee is the #3 team in drawing walks, and Paxton’s high walk rate (11.7 BB%) could be a vulnerability.

Both bullpens are solid, with the Dodgers ranked 6th and the Brewers 14th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. The game is expected to be close, as indicated by the -110 moneyline for both teams. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, slightly favors the Dodgers with a 52% win probability and projects a high-scoring affair with both teams expected to average over 5 runs.

Given the Dodgers’ potent offense and Paxton’s recent struggles, they seem to have a slight edge, but don’t underestimate Peralta’s ability to keep the Brewers in the game. This matchup promises to be an exciting one with playoff implications on the line.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Freddy Peralta’s curveball usage has decreased by 7.5% from last year to this one (12.5% to 5%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Christian Yelich has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.2-mph to 94.4-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• James Paxton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  James Paxton’s fastball spin rate has dropped 110 rpm this season (2098 rpm) below where it was last year (2208 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.2) implies that Andy Pages has experienced some negative variance this year with his 17.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 86 games (+9.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+125/-160)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.05 Units / 33% ROI)