Braves vs Nationals Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 5/20/25

Atlanta Braves

@

Washington Nationals

As the Atlanta Braves visit Nationals Park on May 20, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this National League East matchup. The Washington Nationals, currently sitting at 21-27, are having a rough season and are coming off a strong 10-4 victory against the Braves just two days prior. Meanwhile, the Braves, with a record of 24-23, are hovering around the .500 mark and are looking to bounce back after that loss.

Mitchell Parker is projected to take the mound for the Nationals. He has had an average season with a 4.32 ERA and is ranked as the 142nd best starting pitcher in MLB. His xFIP of 5.28 suggests he might be due for some regression, particularly given his tendency to allow 5.4 hits and 1.8 walks per game. In contrast, the Braves will counter with Spencer Strider, an elite pitcher ranked 10th in MLB. Although his record sits at 0-1, his 3.60 ERA indicates he has the potential to dominate, especially after a solid outing in his last start where he allowed only 2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 15th in the league, while their best hitter has been on fire, boasting a .346 batting average over the last week. Conversely, the Braves’ offense is ranked 14th and has struggled with consistency. The projections give the Braves a solid edge, forecasting a high team total of 4.82 runs, compared to the Nationals’ low implied total of 3.68 runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Spencer Strider to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Typically, batters like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mitchell Parker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect better results for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Mitchell Parker’s curveball usage has dropped by 5.5% from last year to this one (22.6% to 17.1%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Alex Call is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals batters jointly place 22nd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 7.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.09 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 34% ROI)