Braves vs Marlins Preview and Prediction – Monday August 25th, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

On August 25, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves at LoanDepot Park in a matchup that holds significance for both teams, as they aim to turn around disappointing seasons. Currently, the Marlins sit at 61-69, while the Braves are just slightly behind at 59-71. Both teams are struggling, but this game represents an opportunity for either to gain momentum. The Marlins recently triumphed over the Braves in their last outing, winning 5-3, which could provide a psychological edge.

Miami is projected to send Edward Cabrera to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 3.52 ERA, ranking him as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, Cabrera’s recent performance has been less than stellar, as he allowed four earned runs over just four innings in his last start on August 19. Cabrera’s projections are concerning, especially his average of 4.2 hits and 2.3 walks allowed per game, which could be problematic against a Braves lineup that ranks 14th in overall offensive performance.

On the other side, Atlanta will counter with Spencer Strider, who has had a rough season with a 5.24 ERA and a 5-11 record. Strider was hit hard in his last outing, allowing seven earned runs over just three innings. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he could improve, with a 3.88 xFIP indicating he might have been unlucky this season.

Both teams share weaknesses, particularly in their bullpens, with the Marlins ranked 24th and the Braves at 23rd in MLB. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the odds favor a close contest, and the Marlins’ moneyline is currently +100, suggesting a fair chance for an upset against a slumping Braves team.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Spencer Strider’s 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 81st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 97.1-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edward Cabrera to throw 85 pitches in this game (14th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jakob Marsee’s true offensive talent to be a .312, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .151 deviation between that figure and his actual .463 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The Miami Marlins projected batting order ranks as the worst on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+12.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+7.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-185)
  Jakob Marsee has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)