Braves vs Brewers Betting Guide – 7/29/24

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves square off on July 29, 2024, at American Family Field, kicking off a National League series. The Brewers, with a solid 60-45 record, are enjoying a good season and sit in the playoff picture. The Braves, not far behind at 56-48, are having an above-average season, making this a critical matchup for both teams.

Milwaukee comes in hot after a 6-2 win over the Marlins on July 28, where they were significant favorites with a -220 Moneyline. The Brewers’ offense has been a bright spot, ranking 10th in MLB overall and 5th in team batting average. Their speed on the basepaths is notable too, with the Brewers ranking 2nd in stolen bases. However, power has been lacking, with a 20th-place ranking in home runs.

On the mound, the Brewers will start Colin Rea, who boasts a 9-3 record and a decent 3.60 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest some regression, with a 4.39 xFIP indicating he’s been fortunate this season. Rea’s projections for this game aren’t encouraging, as he is expected to give up 2.9 earned runs in 5.2 innings on average.

The Braves counter with Grant Holmes, who has a stellar 2.70 ERA but similarly concerning peripherals, with a 3.52 xFIP. His projections are even less favorable than Rea’s, with just 3.9 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed on average. Holmes’s control could be an advantage against the Brewers’ patient lineup, which ranks 3rd in drawing walks.

Atlanta’s offense, ranked 15th in MLB, leans heavily on power, standing 10th in home runs but struggling in team batting average (17th) and stolen bases (28th). Marcell Ozuna has been a standout, hitting .306 with 30 home runs and 82 RBIs.

The Brewers are slight favorites with a -120 Moneyline and an implied win probability of 52%, while the Braves sit at +100. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees this as a virtual coin flip, with both teams projected to have a 50% win probability. Interestingly, the Brewers are projected to score 4.80 runs, while the Braves are expected to score 5.02, suggesting a high-scoring game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Grant Holmes to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Colin Rea’s slider percentage has jumped by 6.3% from last year to this one (10.7% to 17%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Atlanta (#1-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 104 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 98 games (+24.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)