Boxscore for White Sox vs Giants – 8/21/24

Chicago White Sox

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on August 21, 2024, at Oracle Park, the stakes are clear. The Giants, currently sitting at 65-63, are looking to build momentum after their recent victory over the White Sox, where they secured a 4-1 win just yesterday. Meanwhile, the White Sox are struggling with a dismal record of 30-97 and are in the midst of a terrible season.

Logan Webb is projected to take the mound for the Giants. He has been a standout performer this season, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Webb’s impressive ERA of 3.17 and his recent performance, where he pitched 8 innings with no earned runs in his last start, highlight his elite status. However, his xERA of 4.10 suggests he might not be as fortunate going forward, making this matchup intriguing.

On the other side, Garrett Crochet will start for the White Sox. While he ranks 5th best in MLB, his record of 6-9 and an ERA of 3.61 indicate inconsistency. The projections suggest that both pitchers will face challenges, but Webb’s ability to induce groundballs (57% GB rate) could mitigate the White Sox’s lack of power, as they rank among the lowest in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Giants have the edge, ranking 14th in MLB, while the White Sox sit at 30th. This disparity is further underscored by the projections, which favor the Giants to score around 3.86 runs, compared to the White Sox’s low projection of 3.05 runs. With the Giants boasting the top-ranked bullpen in MLB, they should be poised to capitalize on their home field advantage and continue their winning ways.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Garrett Crochet will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Nicky Lopez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Webb’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (92.7 mph) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (91.7 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The San Francisco Giants have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jerar Encarnacion, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos, Grant McCray).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 away games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 28% ROI)