Boxscore for Red Sox vs Mets – 9/3/24

Boston Red Sox

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 3, 2024, they find themselves in a solid position with a record of 74-64, ranking them above average this season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit at 70-68, indicating a more average performance. The stakes are high for both teams, especially after the Mets secured a convincing 4-1 victory over the Red Sox just yesterday, which marked an important win in this interleague matchup.

David Peterson, projected to start for the Mets, has been a bit of an enigma this season. While he boasts an impressive 8-1 record and a stellar 2.83 ERA, his xFIP of 4.41 suggests he might have enjoyed a bit of good fortune. Nonetheless, Peterson’s ability to limit earned runs—projected at 2.2 today—will be crucial against a Red Sox lineup that, while powerful, ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

On the other side, Kutter Crawford will take the mound for the Red Sox. Despite a less-than-ideal 8-12 record and a 4.12 ERA, Crawford has shown flashes of potential. However, he’s also a high-flyball pitcher, which could spell trouble against a Mets offense that ranks 4th in the league with 132 home runs this season. The projections indicate that the Mets are likely to put runs on the board, with an average expected output of 4.28 runs.

Interestingly, while both teams have solid offensive capabilities, the Mets’ recent form—especially with players like Jesse Winker, who has been hot at the plate—could give them an edge. With the Mets favored at a moneyline of -140, and projections leaning toward their advantage, this matchup could prove pivotal as they look to maintain momentum against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Kutter Crawford has gone to his curveball 5.5% less often this year (6.6%) than he did last year (12.1%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Hitters such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like David Peterson who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  David Peterson’s 2136-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 22nd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+13.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+19.00 Units / 24% ROI)