Boxscore for Red Sox vs Dodgers – 7/19/24

Boston Red Sox

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As we approach the July 19, 2024, matchup at Dodger Stadium, the Los Angeles Dodgers (56-41) are set to host the Boston Red Sox (53-42) in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague clash. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Dodgers leading the way and the Red Sox not far behind.

The Dodgers, coming off a narrow 4-3 loss to the Detroit Tigers on July 14, will look to bounce back with Gavin Stone on the mound. Stone, who boasts a solid 9-3 record and a 3.26 ERA, has been a key contributor this season. However, his 4.08 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Stone’s last outing saw him give up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, which wasn’t his best performance, but his ability to limit walks could serve him well against a Red Sox lineup prone to striking out.

On the other side, Nick Pivetta will start for the Red Sox. With a 4.18 ERA and a 4-6 record, Pivetta has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.45 xFIP. His last start was a mixed bag—7 innings with 4 earned runs but an impressive 10 strikeouts. Pivetta will face a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 1st in MLB and is known for its power, ranking 3rd in home runs. The high-flyball tendencies of Pivetta could be exploited by the Dodgers’ sluggers.

In terms of bullpen support, the Dodgers hold the advantage, ranked 9th, compared to the Red Sox’s 25th. This could be a decisive factor in a game projected to be close, with betting markets giving the Dodgers a 54% implied win probability.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 59% win probability, suggesting some value in betting on Los Angeles. The projections also favor the Dodgers to score 5.24 runs compared to the Red Sox’s 4.61 runs, indicating an edge for the home team.

Overall, this matchup features two strong offenses and a key pitching battle that could go either way. However, with the Dodgers’ powerful lineup and superior bullpen, they appear to have the upper hand heading into this contest.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Rafael Devers has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 100.8-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Stone in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Gavin Lux tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+11.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)