Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers
(-105/-115)+100
As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 12, 2024, both clubs find themselves firmly in the playoff race, occupying 2nd and 3rd place in the National League standings, respectively. The Dodgers sit at 69-49, enjoying a strong season, while the Brewers, at 67-50, are having a commendable campaign of their own. This matchup marks the opening game of a critical series.
In their last outing on August 11, the Brewers fell to the Cincinnati Reds, with a narrow 4-3 defeat, while the Dodgers edged past the Pittsburgh Pirates with a close 6-5 victory. Both teams are looking to build momentum as they head into this pivotal matchup.
Freddy Peralta is projected to take the mound for the Brewers. Despite a Win/Loss record of 7-6 and an ERA of 4.02, advanced metrics suggest that Peralta has been somewhat unlucky this season, with a 3.51 SIERA indicating potential for improvement. However, his tendency to allow fly balls (39% FB rate) could be concerning against a power-laden Dodgers lineup that has hit 139 home runs, ranking 3rd in MLB.
On the other side, the Dodgers will send out Clayton Kershaw, who has struggled this season with a 0-2 record in just 3 starts and a 4.38 ERA. However, Kershaw’s 3.42 FIP suggests he may be on the verge of a turnaround. His low walk rate (5.0 BB%) poses a challenge for the Brewers, who rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks.
The leading MLB projection system estimates a close game with the Dodgers slightly favored. The projections suggest the Brewers will average 4.01 runs, while the Dodgers may score around 4.61 runs, highlighting the potential for a competitive battle on the diamond.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)The Milwaukee Brewers have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Clayton Kershaw in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.3-mph figure last season has fallen to 84.2-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-best of the day in terms of overall batting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Out of all starters, Freddy Peralta’s fastball spin rate of 2445 rpm ranks in the 87th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jackson Chourio has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 21.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 14.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The 7.2% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #24 team in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 95 games (+9.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Gavin Lux has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)