Boxscore for Brewers vs D-Backs – 9/15/24

Milwaukee Brewers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 15, 2024, this matchup carries significant weight in the playoff race. The Diamondbacks currently sit at 82-65, while the Brewers boast an impressive 85-62 record, both teams having solid seasons. This game marks the third in their series, and both squads are keen to secure a crucial win.

In their last contest, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 2nd in MLB for team batting average and 4th in home runs this season. Eugenio Suarez has been particularly hot over the past week, accumulating 11 hits and 10 runs in just 5 games, contributing to a staggering .550 batting average and 1.771 OPS. With Ryne Nelson taking the mound, a right-handed pitcher projected to face the Brewers’ Aaron Civale, the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Chase Field.

While the Brewers also have a strong offense, ranking 9th in team batting average and 16th in home runs, their recent performance hasn’t been as dominant. William Contreras has led the Brewers’ charge recently, but with just 7 hits in his last 6 games, the pressure will be on him to elevate his game.

The projections indicate that the Diamondbacks are favored in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers are projected to score around 4.27 runs. The Diamondbacks’ strong offensive lineup paired with a solid pitching performance from Nelson could prove to be a decisive factor in this tightly contested series.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• D.L. Hall – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, DL Hall encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-165)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Pavin Smith has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 97.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Pavin Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 83 games (+26.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 76 of their last 145 games (+10.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
  Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 34% ROI)