Boxscore for Angels vs Athletics – 7/20/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Oakland Athletics

On July 20, 2024, the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels face off again at the Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics, currently holding a 38-61 record, enter this matchup after a dominant 13-3 victory over the Angels yesterday. Meanwhile, the Angels, with a 41-56 record, will be looking to bounce back from their recent defeat.

Both teams are enduring tough seasons, sitting near the bottom of the American League West standings. For today’s game, the Athletics will start Mitch Spence, while the Angels will counter with Jack Kochanowicz. Spence, a right-hander, carries a 5-6 record with a 4.75 ERA. His xFIP of 3.98 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season and could be due for improved performance. Spence’s last start was a struggle, allowing six earned runs over four innings.

Kochanowicz, also a right-hander, has had an even tougher time on the mound. With an ERA of 12.00 and just one start under his belt this season, his peripherals indicate he’s been unlucky too, sporting a 6.47 xFIP. However, his low strikeout rate (6.3 K%) may play to his advantage against an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Athletics have been inconsistent; despite ranking 28th in team batting average, they are 4th in home runs, showing they can pack a punch. Brent Rooker has been a standout, boasting a .291 batting average, 21 home runs, and a 0.936 OPS. The Angels, led by Zach Neto’s 13 home runs and 14 stolen bases, haven’t fared much better offensively, ranking 17th in home runs and 22nd in batting average.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a 52% win probability for today’s game, slightly higher than the betting market’s implied 59%. While Mitch Spence is considered one of the worst starting pitchers, he still projects to allow fewer runs than Kochanowicz. Given these projections, savvy bettors might find value in backing the underdog Angels, who are projected to score 4.62 runs in a game expected to be close.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jack Kochanowicz in the 4th percentile among all starters in the majors.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Anthony Rendon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Anthony Rendon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 82.5-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Los Angeles Angels have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Mitch Spence – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all SPs, Mitch Spence’s fastball velocity of 90.3 mph ranks in the 12th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Seth Brown tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oakland’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the majors: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+7.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.95 Units / 43% ROI)