Toronto Blue Jays
New York Yankees
(-105/-115)-175
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 7, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Yankees are currently sitting at 79-63, while the Blue Jays lead the division with an impressive 82-60 record. This game marks the third in a vital series, and just days ago, the Yankees secured a 3-1 victory over the Blue Jays, adding pressure on Toronto to respond.
On the mound, the Yankees will send out Max Fried, who has been a standout this season, boasting a 15-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.98. Fried, ranked as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, is projected to pitch over six innings while allowing just 1.9 earned runs. However, his high hit projection (5.1) raises some eyebrows. He recently pitched well, going seven innings with only one earned run in his last outing.
Meanwhile, Max Scherzer takes the hill for the Blue Jays. With a record of 5-2 this season and an ERA of 4.11, Scherzer is considered above average but has shown vulnerability recently. His last start saw him allow four earned runs in just four innings, highlighting potential issues against a powerhouse Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB in home runs.
Despite the Blue Jays having the 2nd best offense overall, they have struggled against the Yankees, who lead the league in walks and home runs. The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -175, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Scherzer’s flyball tendencies. The projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.53 runs for New York, making them a strong bet in this crucial matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+155)Among all the teams in action today, the best infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal average has lowered to 81-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)Max Fried is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Extreme groundball bats like Aaron Judge tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Scherzer.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-175)The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the New York Yankees.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 63 of their last 106 games (+22.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.05 Units / 30% ROI)