Blue Jays vs White Sox Preview and Prediction – Tuesday July 8th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 8, 2025, as both teams continue their series. The White Sox are struggling this season, sitting at 30-61, while the Blue Jays have a solid 53-38 record. In their previous matchup, the Blue Jays emerged victorious, further highlighting the disparity between these two teams.

Aaron Civale is projected to take the mound for the White Sox. While he has an average ERA of 4.60, his 5.29 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate this season, suggesting a potential regression in performance. Civale’s low strikeout rate of 17.3% could be problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that has the fewest strikeouts in MLB. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 3.1 earned runs, which could be challenging given the weakness of the White Sox offense, ranked 30th in MLB.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has been performing well with an 8-4 record and a 4.32 ERA. Although his xFIP of 3.61 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, he is still considered an average pitcher overall. Bassitt projects to pitch about 5.7 innings and allow around 2.8 earned runs, which aligns well with the Blue Jays’ strong offensive capabilities, ranking 11th in MLB.

With the Blue Jays favored in this matchup, their potent offense and Bassitt’s steady performance should give them an edge over the struggling White Sox. The projections favor the Blue Jays significantly, making them a solid pick for those looking to place bets.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Chris Bassitt has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Ernie Clement’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 82.7-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Aaron Civale’s slider rate has decreased by 6.9% from last season to this one (16.3% to 9.4%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Mike Tauchman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Mike Tauchman has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .288 mark is a good deal higher than his .243 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.