Blue Jays vs White Sox Match Preview and Winning Probability – Wednesday July 09, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Chicago White Sox

On July 9, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field in the third game of their series. Both teams recently faced off, with the White Sox suffering a disappointing 6-1 loss to the Blue Jays, who continue to showcase their strong form with a solid season record of 54-38. Meanwhile, the White Sox languish at 30-62, marking a challenging year for the franchise.

Adrian Houser is set to take the mound for the White Sox after a remarkable complete game shutout performance in his last start on July 4, where he pitched 8 innings without allowing a run. Despite his 1.60 ERA, advanced analytics suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate this season, as his 3.97 xFIP indicates potential regression. Houser’s strikeout numbers have been less impressive, projecting just 3.1 strikeouts on average today.

On the other side, Eric Lauer, who has also started 8 games this year, brings a respectable 2.65 ERA. However, he is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. Lauer’s high flyball rate (44 FB%) could play to his advantage against a White Sox offense that ranks 30th in home runs, making it challenging for them to capitalize on any mistakes.

The Blue Jays boast a powerful lineup, ranking 9th overall, with a particularly impressive 2nd place finish in team batting average. Their best hitter has been on fire recently, posting a 0.346 batting average and a 1.201 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the White Sox offense struggles, ranking dead last in multiple categories, including batting average and overall offensive performance.

Given the current trends and matchups, the projections favor the Blue Jays, who are expected to put up a solid fight against a struggling White Sox team. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors may find value in the Blue Jays’ offensive capabilities against a pitcher who, despite a strong recent outing, may not be able to replicate that success against a potent lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Eric Lauer’s 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 20th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Typically, bats like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Adrian Houser.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Adrian Houser is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue in MLB — in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The switch-hitting Edgar Quero will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Eric Lauer.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Austin Slater has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.74 Units / 13% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 91 games (+15.34 Units / 14% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.95 Units / 23% ROI)