Blue Jays vs Tigers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 7/27/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

On July 27, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in a crucial American League matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Tigers sitting at 60-46 and the Blue Jays slightly ahead at 63-42. The Tigers are in pursuit of a Wild Card spot, while the Blue Jays are looking to solidify their playoff position. In their last meeting, the Tigers fell short, but they remain competitive in this four-game series.

Jack Flaherty is set to take the mound for Detroit. Despite a Win/Loss record of 5-10 this year, Flaherty’s advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.64 xFIP indicates room for improvement. However, he has struggled with allowing hits, projecting to give up 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks on average today, which could be problematic against the potent Blue Jays lineup.

Max Scherzer will pitch for Toronto, looking to build on a solid return to the mound after starting just six games this season. Although his ERA stands at 5.14, his 4.24 xFIP suggests he may be better than his numbers indicate. Scherzer projects to allow 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks, which aligns with the Tigers’ offensive strengths, particularly their 10th-ranked lineup in MLB.

The Tigers’ offense has been buoyed by their best hitter, who has been on fire lately, boasting a .353 batting average and a .918 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ top hitter is even hotter, with a staggering .517 batting average and a 1.438 OPS.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs and the Tigers holding a moneyline of -120, betting markets see this as a close contest. The projections suggest that the Tigers could exceed their implied team total of 4.35 runs, making them a team to watch in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Max Scherzer has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching an 8.58 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.64 — a 1.06 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Nathan Lukes is penciled in 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Jack Flaherty’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (92.2 mph) below where it was last season (93.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Zach McKinstry’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 88-mph mark last year has lowered to 85.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 59 of their last 105 games (+11.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.0 (+130)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 100 games (+19.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)