Blue Jays vs Rays Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Friday May 23, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

On May 23, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Toronto Blue Jays in the first game of their series at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances, with the Rays coming off a solid win against the Blue Jays on May 21, where they triumphed 8-4. Currently, the Rays sit at 4th in the American League East with a record of 23-26, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 25-24, occupying 3rd place.

Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound for the Rays. Although he has a 2-4 record this season, his 2.93 ERA signals strong performance, ranking him as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his peripheral stats suggest he may be benefiting from some luck and could perform worse as the season progresses. In his last outing on May 17, Rasmussen delivered a stellar performance, pitching 6 innings with no earned runs and striking out 5 batters.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will send Eric Lauer to the mound. His season has not been as impressive, with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 2.25, but the projections indicate he might struggle against Tampa Bay’s lineup. Lauer has only pitched 2 games this year, and his underlying metrics point to potential regression.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, which reflects their struggles at the plate, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 17th. Despite this, the Rays have been excellent on the base paths, leading the league in stolen bases. With betting odds favoring the Rays at -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, they may have the edge in this matchup, especially considering the Blue Jays’ underwhelming bullpen, ranked 5th best in MLB. This could be a pivotal game for both teams as they look to gain momentum moving forward.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Eric Lauer (38.4% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Addison Barger’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.3-mph now compared to just 88.1-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Toronto’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Danny Jansen, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+320/-470)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)