Blue Jays vs Rangers Picks and Odds – September 18, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays, both sitting at 72-79 in the standings, continue their series at Globe Life Field on September 18, 2024. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with little to play for beyond pride and development for the future. The Rangers come into this matchup with a confidence boost, having secured a 13-8 victory over the Blue Jays in their last meeting.

The pitching duel features Cody Bradford for the Rangers and Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays. Bradford’s performance this season has been steady, with a 3.97 ERA and a 5-3 record across 11 starts. Despite getting roughed up in his last start, Bradford ranks 109th among MLB starting pitchers, highlighting his mediocrity. On the other hand, Francis has a remarkable 3.50 ERA, though his 4.20 xFIP suggests he may have been riding a wave of good fortune. In his last outing, Francis pitched a complete game, further solidifying his value on the mound despite his bullpen origins.

Offensively, the Rangers face challenges, ranking 25th in overall MLB offense this season. However, they’ve been buoyed recently by Wyatt Langford’s hot streak, with a .364 batting average and 1.300 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense sits at a middling 15th, with Davis Schneider showcasing a .467 batting average and 1.533 OPS in the past week.

The Rangers’ bullpen is a notable asset, ranked 5th in the league, providing a significant edge against the Blue Jays’ 24th-ranked bullpen. Meanwhile, projections give the Rangers a 54% win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors. With both teams evenly matched, this game promises to be another closely contested affair.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Bowden Francis’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (91 mph) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (92.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Cody Bradford is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jonah Heim’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 80.8-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games at home (+13.30 Units / 16% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-210)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 48 away games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)