Blue Jays vs Orioles Match Preview and Winning Probability – Monday July 28, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off on July 28, 2025, both squads find themselves in starkly different places in the standings. The Orioles’ season has been disappointing, holding a record of 47-58, while the Blue Jays are thriving at 63-43, representing the 1st best offense in MLB this season. This matchup marks the beginning of a series between these two rivals, adding extra excitement to the game.

In their last outings, the Orioles managed an impressive 5-1 victory over the New York Yankees, showcasing their potential to surprise despite an overall underwhelming season. Conversely, the Blue Jays suffered a significant 10-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, leading to some questions about their momentum heading into this matchup.

Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Orioles, and while his 5.78 ERA suggests challenges, his 4.20 xFIP indicates he may be due for a bounce-back performance. Eflin needs to capitalize on his ability to limit walks, facing a Blue Jays lineup that is tied for the 1st least strikeout rate in MLB. This could be a pivotal factor, as the Orioles rank 3rd least in walks drawn, potentially neutralizing Eflin’s strengths.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt, with a solid 3.88 ERA and a strong performance in his last start, will look to control the game early for the Blue Jays. With a projected team total of 4.75 runs, both offenses are vying for a notable edge. The projections favor the Blue Jays slightly, but given the Orioles’ recent victory and the volatility of baseball, this matchup has the potential to be much closer than anticipated.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s game, Chris Bassitt may not stay in the game more than a couple framess consider he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Addison Barger has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 88.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zach Eflin has gone to his secondary pitches 5.5% more often this year (68.2%) than he did last year (62.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Ramon Laureano has been lucky this year, putting up a .362 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .039 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.6% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 63 games (+19.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+6.65 Units / 26% ROI)