Blue Jays vs Mariners Value Bets and Betting Line – July 06, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 6, 2024, at T-Mobile Park in what is shaping up to be a compelling American League matchup. Seattle enters the game with a solid 49-41 record, sitting comfortably above .500, while Toronto’s season has been disappointing, holding a 39-49 record.

In their previous encounter on July 5, the Mariners eked out a 2-1 victory over the Blue Jays in a game that was expected to be closely contested based on Moneyline odds. This win boosts Seattle’s morale heading into this second game of the series, where they will look to continue their momentum.

On the mound, the Mariners will start Emerson Hancock, a right-handed pitcher who has had a middling season. Hancock’s 3-3 record and 4.79 ERA are somewhat misleading given his 6.08 xERA, suggesting he’s been fortunate thus far. Hancock’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 5th in avoiding strikeouts. However, Hancock may benefit from Toronto’s lack of power, as they rank 28th in home runs.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with righty Yariel Rodriguez, who holds a 0-3 record with a 4.44 ERA. Rodriguez has shown flashes of potential, most notably in his last start on July 1 when he pitched 7 strong innings, allowing just 1 earned run. However, his high walk rate could spell trouble against a Mariners offense that ranks 6th in drawing walks, despite their struggles in other offensive categories.

The Mariners’ best hitter, Julio Rodriguez, has been a bright spot this season, providing a consistent offensive threat. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been their most reliable bat, boasting a .293 batting average and 13 home runs.

Both bullpens rank near the bottom of MLB, with Seattle’s bullpen at 25th and Toronto’s at 26th. This could make for a high-scoring affair late in the game, especially given that the projected game total is 8.5 runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this as a toss-up with both teams having a 50% win probability. However, considering Seattle’s slightly better overall season performance and the home-field advantage, the Mariners might hold the edge in this closely matched contest.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Yariel Rodriguez’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2379 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2436 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  In terms of his batting average, George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year. His .216 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .278.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Emerson Hancock to throw 84 pitches today (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Mitch Haniger is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)