Blue Jays vs Braves Prediction and Game Breakdown – Sunday September 8, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park on September 8, 2024, both teams are looking to rebound after the Braves fell to the Blue Jays by a score of 9-5 in their previous matchup. The Braves, with a record of 77-65, are having an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 68-75, struggling to find their footing.

Chris Sale, projected to start for the Braves, is enjoying an outstanding season, boasting a 16-3 record and a stellar 2.46 ERA. Sale’s reputation as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, positions him as a significant threat to the Blue Jays’ lineup. However, he faces a challenge against a low-strikeout offense that ranks 4th least in the league. This could hinder Sale’s ability to capitalize on his high strikeout rate of 32.4%.

On the other side, Yariel Rodriguez is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays. His 1-6 record and an ERA of 4.61 indicate a below-average performance this season. Despite being projected to allow 2.4 earned runs over 4.5 innings, his struggles with walks (11.2% BB rate) could be exploited by the Braves’ offense, which ranks 13th best overall.

With the Braves holding a high implied team total of 4.63 runs, projections suggest they could score around 4.57 runs in this matchup. Given the Braves’ strong bullpen, ranked 8th best, they should have the edge in this contest. As the Braves aim to bounce back from their recent loss, they will look to leverage their offensive strengths against a Blue Jays team that has struggled to find consistency.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team’s projected offense, Yariel Rodriguez ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Chris Sale’s 94.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph rise from last year’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last year’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 140 games (+29.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 52 away games (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 games (+10.10 Units / 15% ROI)