Betting Trends for Phillies vs Royals Game – 8/23/24

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23, 2024, they find themselves in a competitive matchup. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Phillies currently holding a record of 74-53, while the Royals stand at 71-56. This Interleague contest will mark the first game of their series and carries significant weight as both teams look to bolster their postseason aspirations.

The Royals will send Michael Wacha to the mound, who has had a decent season, posting a 3.33 ERA and a 10-6 record over 22 starts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wacha is the 73rd best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has been above average this year. However, projections suggest he might be due for some regression, as his 4.13 xFIP indicates potential luck in his performance.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker, who has struggled this season, posting a 5.69 ERA with a 3-4 record in just 12 starts. Walker has been labeled as one of the worst pitchers in the league based on these metrics, which could give the Royals a distinct advantage. His low strikeout rate (19.0 K%) against a Royals lineup that strikes out the least in MLB could play to Kansas City’s favor.

Offensively, the Phillies boast the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 3rd best team batting average. In contrast, the Royals rank 12th overall but have shown flashes of power, ranking 19th in home runs. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this matchup could provide plenty of scoring opportunities. The Royals are favored at -140, with an implied team total of 4.78 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to capitalize on Walker’s struggles.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Taijuan Walker is projected to strikeout 3.4 batters today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  As it relates to his batting average, Trea Turner has been very fortunate this year. His .302 BA has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+115)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  This season, Michael Wacha has added a new pitch to his repertoire (a slider), working it in on 8.7% of his pitches.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Paul DeJong has strong power (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (30.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Kansas City Royals hitters as a unit rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (4th-) as far as their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-135)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-165/+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)