Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
(+100/-120)-110
The Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles at Globe Life Field on July 19, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Rangers, currently 46-50 and having a below-average season, face a tough test against the Orioles, who boast a 58-38 record and are having a great season. This game marks the first in the series between the two teams.
Nathan Eovaldi is set to take the mound for the Rangers. Eovaldi, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this season with a 2.97 ERA and a 6-3 Win/Loss record over 16 starts. However, his peripheral stats, such as a 3.59 SIERA, suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate and could see regression. Eovaldi’s last outing on July 13 was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 7. Eovaldi’s ability to induce ground balls (49 GB%) could be advantageous against the Orioles’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in home runs.
On the other side, Corbin Burnes will start for Baltimore. Burnes, also a right-hander, has been excellent this season with a 2.43 ERA and a 9-4 Win/Loss record across 19 starts. Similar to Eovaldi, Burnes’s peripheral stats, like his 3.35 xFIP, suggest he’s outperformed his underlying metrics. In his last start on July 10, Burnes pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 5. Burnes’s performance will be crucial in containing a Rangers offense that ranks 20th in MLB.
Offensively, the Orioles have a significant edge. Baltimore’s lineup is ranked as the 2nd best in MLB, with Gunnar Henderson leading the charge. Henderson has been phenomenal, posting a .286 batting average and a .956 OPS along with 28 home runs. In contrast, the Rangers’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 20th overall. Marcus Semien has been their standout player, but the team’s inconsistency at the plate poses a challenge against Burnes.
In terms of bullpen support, both teams are relatively even, with the Rangers ranked 13th and the Orioles 16th in the Power Rankings. This suggests that late-game scenarios might be closely contested.
Betting markets see this as a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 52% win probability. Given the Orioles’ superior overall performance and the edge in starting pitching, Baltimore looks to have a slight advantage in this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Compared to the average hurler, Corbin Burnes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Gunnar Henderson projects as the 16th-best hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi must realize this, because he has utilized his secondary offerings a lot this year: 64% of the time, placing in the 88th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Marcus Semien has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 81.2-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+14.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.20 Units / 204% ROI)