Betting Trends for Angels vs Rangers Game – 9/6/24

Los Angeles Angels

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 6, 2024, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Rangers sit with a record of 68-73, indicating a below-average performance, while the Angels are even worse at 58-82. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the second game in their current series, and both teams are looking to build momentum. Notably, the Rangers are coming off a last outing that showcased their offensive woes, which have placed them 23rd in MLB rankings.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Gerson Garabito, a right-handed pitcher with an impressive 2.55 ERA despite being ranked 266th among MLB starters. However, his 5.01 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Garabito has only started one game this season, compiling a 0-1 record, and his projections indicate he will struggle with an average of 4.8 innings pitched and potentially allowing 2.5 earned runs. In contrast, Los Angeles will counter with Samuel Aldegheri, a left-handed pitcher whose 3.60 ERA is solid on the surface, but his 8.03 xFIP indicates a far less encouraging outlook.

From an offensive perspective, the Rangers have a slight edge, especially with Josh Jung leading the charge after a strong week, hitting .417 with 10 hits and two home runs. The projections also favor Texas, suggesting they will score about 4.82 runs on average in this game, which is notably high given their recent struggles.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this contest promises to be an engaging one for bettors. The projections hint that backing the Rangers might be wise, considering their implied team total of 4.99 runs and the struggles of the Angels’ bullpen, which ranks 28th in MLB.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  In his last outing, Samuel Aldegheri was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Texas’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Nolan Schanuel, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Gerson Garabito – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Recording 79.7 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Gerson Garabito places in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+14.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)