Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Cubs Saturday, September 28, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are set to host the Cincinnati Reds on September 28, 2024, at Wrigley Field in a National League Central matchup. With the Cubs holding an 82-78 record and the Reds at 76-84, both teams are looking to finish their seasons on a positive note. The Cubs, having secured a better record, are still considered to be having an average season, while the Reds have struggled with a below-average performance this year.

In the pitching matchup, the Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound. Despite a rough season, with a 4-12 Win/Loss record and a 6.28 ERA, Hendricks’s 4.54 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could improve. The Cubs’ offense, ranked 13th in MLB, could provide the necessary support, especially given their patience at the plate. They rank 6th in drawing walks, which could be advantageous against Rhett Lowder, the Reds’ starter known for his high walk rate. While Lowder has posted an impressive 1.40 ERA in his limited starts, his 4.17 xFIP indicates he’s benefited from some good fortune.

The Reds’ offense, ranked 19th, faces a challenge against Hendricks, but they have been effective at stealing bases, ranking 3rd in MLB. This speed could pressure the Cubs’ defense. However, the Cubs’ bullpen, ranked 22nd, holds a slight edge over the Reds’ 26th-ranked bullpen, potentially impacting the late innings.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Cubs a slight edge with a 56% win probability, suggesting that they might capitalize on their home-field advantage and slightly superior pitching depth. As the Cubs aim to finish the series strong, bettors should consider their ability to exploit Lowder’s control issues and their solid offensive patience.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Rhett Lowder’s high utilization rate of his fastball (53.3% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jake Fraley will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Kyle Hendricks’s 87.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 0th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  By putting up a 1.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner has performed in the 2nd percentile for power.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Chicago’s 92.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #7 offense in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games at home (+11.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 134 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
  TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 away games (+18.75 Units / 156% ROI)