Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
(-120/+100)-130
The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics are set to face off on July 27, 2024, in what will be the third game of their series at Angel Stadium. Coming off a narrow 5-4 loss to the Athletics on July 26, the Angels will be looking to bounce back and secure a win at home. Both teams are struggling this season; the Angels hold a 45-59 record, while the Athletics are slightly worse at 43-63.
On the mound for the Angels will be Tyler Anderson, a left-handed pitcher with a solid 2.91 ERA this season. Despite his respectable ERA, Anderson’s advanced stats, including a 4.89 xFIP, suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Anderson has an 8-8 record in 20 starts, and in his last outing, he pitched six strong innings, allowing just one earned run with eight strikeouts. Anderson’s low strikeout rate (17.7%) against a high-strikeout Athletics lineup might give him an edge.
Opposing him is Mitch Spence, a right-handed pitcher for the Athletics. Spence has had a mixed season with a 4.67 ERA and a 6-6 record over 12 starts and 23 relief appearances. His 4.03 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. In his last start on July 20, Spence allowed two earned runs over five innings.
Offensively, the Angels have struggled, ranking 24th overall and 22nd in team batting average. However, they rank 7th in stolen bases, hinting at some speed on the basepaths. The Athletics, meanwhile, boast the 17th best offense but rank just 27th in batting average. Their power has been a bright spot, with the team ranking 4th in home runs. Brent Rooker has been the standout for Oakland, with a .288 batting average, 25 homers, and an impressive .948 OPS.
Given the high game total of 9.0 runs, expect an offensively driven game. The Angels are slight favorites with a moneyline of -125, translating to a 53% implied win probability. THE BAT X, recognized as the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a 55% chance to win. The Athletics sit as underdogs at +105, with a 47% implied probability. With both teams’ pitchers showing vulnerabilities, especially against power hitters, this game could see plenty of action on the scoreboard.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Mitch Spence must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary pitches a lot this year: 85.7% of the time, grading out in the 99th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The 9.5% Barrel% of the Oakland Athletics makes them the #5 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Among all starting pitchers, Tyler Anderson’s fastball velocity of 88.6 mph grades out in the 1st percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Logan O’Hoppe has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 83.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)In today’s game, Logan O’Hoppe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.7% rate (90th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line -1.5 (+160)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+110)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+300/-440)Brent Rooker has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 25 games (+21.40 Units / 86% ROI)