San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays
(-120/+100)+100
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the San Diego Padres on September 1, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this Interleague matchup. The Rays sit at 67-68, having recently secured a decisive 11-4 victory over the Padres, while San Diego boasts a solid 77-61 record. The stakes are high as the Rays aim to improve their standing and keep their postseason hopes alive.
Ryan Pepiot is projected to take the mound for the Rays, bringing a respectable 3.61 ERA this season. He recently pitched well, going six innings with only two earned runs in his last start. However, Pepiot faces a challenging matchup against Dylan Cease, who ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB and has a solid 3.57 ERA. Cease struggled in his last outing, allowing four earned runs over just four innings, but his overall performance this season signals that he is capable of bouncing back.
Offensively, the Padres have the upper hand, ranking 8th in MLB with a .281 batting average, while the Rays’ offense is struggling at 27th overall. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with both teams expected to score under four runs. Tampa Bay’s best hitter recently has been Josh Lowe, who is hitting .409 over the last week, but the team as a whole has not shown the power needed to capitalize on Cease’s flyball tendencies.
With a low game total of 7.0 runs and Tampa Bay’s current moneyline at +100, betting markets suggest a close contest. The Rays’ strong bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, could play a critical role in keeping the game competitive as they look to build on their recent success against the Padres.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Dylan Cease’s slider percentage has jumped by 8.4% from last season to this one (38.6% to 47%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jake Cronenworth has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+100)Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Josh Lowe has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 99.5-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 76 of their last 126 games (+21.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-120)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)Jose Siri has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+17.90 Units / 256% ROI)